The transition to a low-carbon and digital economy depends on a growing number of critical minerals. But the challenge ahead is not simply a question of whether enough resources exist. The International Energy Agency’s (IEA) Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2026 highlights a deeper issue: how these resources are produced, processed, used and governed will shape the resilience of future supply chains. Across our projects at WRF, we see how resilient mineral value chains require systemic solutions that combine circularity, responsible sourcing, innovation and international cooperation.
- Recycling is becoming a resilience strategy. Circular systems reduce dependence on primary extraction, but unlocking their full potential requires investment in collection, infrastructure and product design.
- Demand-side innovation deserves equal attention. Material efficiency, substitution and sufficiency can strengthen supply security just as much as diversifying suppliers.
- Mineral partnerships must deliver shared value. Diversifying supply chains requires cooperation that strengthens local capacities and enables producing countries to benefit more from their resources.
- Responsible sourcing underpins resilient supply chains. As supply chains become more diverse, meaningful due diligence and stakeholder engagement become essential for transparency, trust and long-term resilience.
Recycling as resilience, not just waste management
The IEA’s Outlook makes clear that recycling is no longer just a waste management issue but a resilience strategy. Recovered materials reduce dependence on primary mining and help cushion supply chains against export restrictions and price volatility. Although recycled material currently meets only around one-tenth of demand for key minerals and is expected to nearly double its share by 2040, recycling alone will still provide only about one-fifth of future demand. Primary mining will therefore remain essential, making it all the more important to recover every tonne that can be kept in circulation.
Building that capacity cannot wait. Much of today’s demand, particularly from electric vehicles, will only become available for recycling years from now, yet collection systems and recycling infrastructure must already be in place. The challenge is evident today: in 2022, the world generated 62 million tonnes of e-waste, but only 22.3% was formally collected and recycled, leaving vast quantities of valuable materials unrecovered.
This is where STEP (Sustainable Electronics Platform) and the Circular Electronics Initiative (CEI) project contribute by strengthening the systems that make circularity possible; from better collection and recycling infrastructure to extended producer responsibility and collaboration across the electronics value chain. More broadly, they reinforce that resilience depends on more than recycling alone. Strategies such as reducing, reusing, repairing, refurbishing and remanufacturing help keep materials in use for longer and reduce demand before products even reach the end of their life.
Reducing demand through efficiency, substitution and sufficiency
The IEA’s Outlook makes clear that strengthening critical mineral supply chains is not only about diversifying suppliers. Demand-side measures, including material efficiency, substitution and better product design, are equally important for reducing exposure to supply risks. This matters because refining remains highly concentrated, with one country accounting for around 72% of processing capacity for key energy minerals (excluding rare earths). Diversification can reduce dependence, but it cannot eliminate it. Reducing the amount of material needed in the first place is therefore a resilience strategy in its own right.
Healthcare illustrates why this is not simply a technical challenge. Safety, sterility and contamination requirements limit the use of recycled or substitute materials, making eco-design across the full product lifecycle essential. WRF projects are tackling this from different angles: ENKORE develops safe and sustainable-by-design solutions for single-use medical devices and packaging; DiCE promotes the reuse, refurbishment and recycling of digital healthcare devices; and MedTechLabel improves traceability through a universal digital labelling framework that supports compliance and circularity.
This broader perspective also connects to sufficiency. As argued in WRF’s recent position paper, sufficiency is not about sacrifice but about designing systems that meet human needs with fewer resources. Applied to critical minerals, this shifts the focus from securing ever greater volumes of supply to reducing demand through better products, smarter material choices and more resource-efficient systems. Seen this way, efficiency is not simply a technical complement to circularity, but a central principle of resilient resource governance.
Diversification requires trusted partnerships
The IEA’s 2026 Outlook shows that supply chain concentration is no longer a theoretical concern but an immediate economic and geopolitical risk. In 2025, export restrictions by major producing countries, including the Democratic Republic of the Congo’s cobalt export quota, Zimbabwe’s restrictions on lithium concentrate exports and China’s expanded controls on rare earths and related technologies, demonstrated how quickly policy decisions can reshape global markets.
The response has been a growing emphasis on strategic partnerships. Under its Raw Materials Diplomacy, the European Union has concluded a series of partnerships with resource-rich countries, including Namibia, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Zambia, Rwanda and South Africa, to strengthen sustainable minerals value chains. Notably, these agreements extend beyond securing access to raw materials: they also emphasise investment, local processing, skills development and value creation in producing countries.
This approach is also reflected in the EU-funded Horizon project AfricaMaVal, in which WRF was involved. Rather than viewing Africa only as a source of raw materials, the project explored how collaboration between African and European stakeholders can strengthen responsible mineral value chains through capacity building, knowledge exchange and support for the artisanal and small-scale mining (ASM) sector. ASM is an important yet often under-recognised contributor to global mineral supply chains, providing an estimated 26% of the world’s tantalum, 25% of tin and 20% of cobalt. At the same time, the sector provides livelihoods for millions of people, including more than 13 million workers in resource-rich Sub-Saharan Africa alone. Improving access to training, finance and responsible market opportunities can therefore strengthen supply security while creating better economic opportunities for mining communities.
Value creation must happen closer to the source
The IEA also highlights a broader shift in the expectations of resource-rich countries. Many are no longer satisfied with exporting raw materials while most of the economic value is created elsewhere through refining and manufacturing. Latin America illustrates this opportunity. Although the region produces a substantial share of the world’s critical minerals, it refines only around one-fifth of its output. The IEA estimates that expanding domestic processing of lithium, nickel, cobalt, graphite, rare earths and copper could increase the economic value generated in the region by almost 50%, reaching around USD 220 billion by 2035. Realising that potential, however, will require investment, infrastructure, skills and stronger engagement with local stakeholders.
The same discussion is increasingly relevant across Africa. Here too, much of the value associated with critical minerals is created after raw materials leave producing countries. Because a substantial share of production originates in the ASM sector, strengthening local value chains also means recognising and supporting small-scale producers through formalisation, capacity building and access to responsible markets. Building resilience therefore involves more than diversifying where minerals come from; it also means ensuring that producing countries and local communities benefit more fairly from the resources they supply.
As supply chains become more diversified and involve a wider range of producers, robust due diligence becomes even more important. Standards such as the OECD Due Diligence Guidance and emerging EU requirements provide a framework for responsible sourcing, but their effectiveness depends on meaningful engagement with workers, communities and small-scale producers. WRF’s DiliCHANCE project contributes to this effort by strengthening the participation of rightsholders in due diligence and audit processes, helping ensure that responsible sourcing is grounded in conditions on the ground rather than becoming a purely administrative exercise.
A new agenda for resource governance
The IEA’s 2026 Outlook highlights a broader shift in the critical minerals debate. The central question is moving beyond how to secure more supply towards how to build mineral systems that are resilient, responsible and fit for the future.
This means looking at the entire lifecycle of resources: reducing unnecessary demand, keeping materials in circulation, supporting value creation in producing regions and ensuring that extraction and trade are built on transparency and trust. Supply security and sustainability are increasingly connected; one cannot be achieved without the other.
This perspective is at the core of WRF’s work. Through projects on circular electronics, sustainable healthcare technologies, responsible mining and due diligence, WRF contributes to the development of resource systems that respond to both environmental and economic challenges. The IEA’s Outlook reinforces the importance of this broader approach: the future of critical minerals will depend not only on where resources are found, but on how wisely and fairly they are managed.
Rebecca Suhner
World Resources Forum