Water, food safe and bioenergy, an approach from life cycle assessment and system dynamics models
Sandra BAUTISTA1, Yulia Ivanova2, Paulo Narvaez3, Mauricio Camargo4
1Universidad El Bosque, Colombia; 2Universidad Militar, Colombia; 3Universidad Nacional de Colombia; 4Université de Lorena, Francia
Greenhouse gas emissions linked to combustion of fossil fuels are the governments concerns that are fostering the energy sources diversification by creating a set of governmental environmental policies and initiatives. In this context, bioenergy are expected to represent a substantial part of source diversification, but it is necessary to assess the effect of their production on water scarcity and food safe in a local context. This research present a conceptual model based on the system dynamics model and life cycle conceptualization in Colombian context, take in consideration the water demanded in agricultural activities, livestock production, population consumption, palm oil cultivation, oil palm extraction and biodiesel production. A system dynamics based model is proposed to enabling decision stakeholders to understand the influences between the different variables that describe the system and the impact of the food safe and water scarcity in Colombia. The primary focus of this paper is to establish the characteristics of each sustainability dimension (social, environmental, economic and political) for the case of study and apply the system dynamics methodology in a specific region in Colombia. The results show Water demanded by livestock lands is the largest contributor for the total demand, land concentration should be diminished with the aim to reduce distribution inequality of land ownership, and the agricultural lands should be increased due to its positive effect on food security. Agricultural lands decrease in inverse proportion to palm-oil cultivation and livestock lands. However, the effect of the latter is greater than the influence of the former on agricultural land reduction. Furthermore, social research identified that agricultural land diminution could intensify poverty and violence conditions in region influenced by oil palm cultivation.