Session 3

World Energy Scenarios – three exploratory scenarios to 2060
Tom Kober
Paul Scherrer Institut, Switzerland

The energy sector is changing with different supply and demand patterns evolving in the long term, and the energy landscape is likely to look differently in 50 years compared to today. Meeting future energy demand will be a challenge, and policy makers and business leaders today have to take decisions on our future energy infrastructure in a context of multiple uncertainties.
The World Energy Council (WEC) in partnership with PSI and Accenture produced three explorative scenarios looking to 2060, where the scenarios correspond to three possible future pathways of the global energy sector. These scenarios were quantified by PSI’s global multi-regional MARKAL model (GMM), which was the central tool for this analysis. Different possible trajectories of the future development of the global energy system are investigated with three scenarios – named Modern Jazz, Unfinished Symphony, and Hard Rock – which cover a broad range of possible future boundary conditions for the energy sector.
The results of our scenario study reveal that a successful transformation of the energy sector requires intensified global political and economic collaboration, as countries aiming at improving energy security, expanding energy equity and reducing carbon emissions. Efficiency gains through technology innovation and smarter energy usage are important to slow down the primary energy consumption and per capita energy demand. It can be observed across all scenarios that the world primary energy growth is dampened with a peaking in per capita energy before 2030 due to unprecedented efficiencies created by new technologies and tightening policies. While the global average of the primary energy consumption per capita is between 2000 and 2400 Watts per capita in 2060, regional energy intensities differ significantly. For instance, Europe and North America stay above 3500 Watts per capita.