WS7 System dynamics and econometric approaches: Potential and limits of modelling resource Efficiency

 

· Workshops Organiser: Ecological Institute 

· Workshop Chair: Prof. Harald Sverdrup

· Date and Time: Tuesday 13, 08h00 – 09h50

· Room: Sertig

· Description: 

In 2012, the Club of Rome launched a new Report to the Club of Rome, entitled “2052 – A Global Forecast for the Next Forty Years”. In launching this Report, the Club of Rome continued its tradition of raising fundamental questions about the challenges facing humankind in a systemic, holistic and long-term manner. This Report revisited issues first raised four decades ago in Limits to Growth. The unbroken use of natural resources by humans yields risks of ecological overshoot beyond planetary boundaries and eroding the resilience of global social-ecological systems. When transferred to resource availability, risk for physical resource use overshoot is also present. In the past 30 years, global abiotic resource extraction has almost doubled to around 50 billion tones and projections indicate that this trend will continue if appropriate measures are not taken.

With this background, the German Federal Environment Agency (UBA) initiated the research project SimRess to support the development of policy measures and to get clarity about the consequences of business-as-usual. Taking into account that simulation results are often criticized or challenged, one of the main expected outcomes of the SimRess project is the linkage of the econometric model GINFORS with the system dynamics model WORLD. The main strength of GINFORS is the projection and simulation of raw material demand using dynamic Input-Output-Models for 38 countries and a region “Rest of World”, that inter alia reflect technological developments and the catch-up of developing countries in very detailed way. These country models are interlinked via bilateral trade flows. The main strength of WORLD system dynamics model is the detailed insight into processes that affect the supply of broad range of abiotic and biotic resources. Combining these both powers of the modelling approaches, the SimRess modelling framework will be used as a decision support tool in analyzing the potential effectiveness of various resource policy measures. Due to the linkage, both demand and supply-side of raw materials can be handled and with new price models, the raw material prices will be generated from basic principles, internally in the model structure. Model outputs, as well as the modelling process, will provide inputs to policy development and recommendations, which might potentially contribute to further development of the German resource efficiency programme ProgRess.

· Tentative list of Presentations and Speakers:

1. 40 years WORLD Model – Brief description of WORLD3 System Dynamic model and it’s impacts (T.b.d.: Jorgen Randers or Harald Sverdrup – Club of Rome) PRESENTATION
2. The scope power of GINFORS Econometric model (by Martin Distelkamp – GWS) PRESENTATION
3. Bringing stakeholders into play: Group modelling processes and results from key sectors (by Deniz Koca – Lund University)
4. SimRess: bringing together improved WORLD3 and GINFORS – lessons learnt so far and first results (by Harald Sverdrup – Lund University and Martin Distelkamp – GWS) PRESENTATION

· Some key questions of the workshop (preliminary):
        – What are main paradigms behind current modelling approaches? What makes them successful?
        – How to make modelling results more important in political decision process?
        – What roles play stakeholders, experts and politicians in model building and evaluations?